Bitcoin bears

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The tech world reacts to Elon Musk's huge bid for Twitter. Coronavirus-related lockdowns in China are placing a kink in global supply chains. Additionally, Apple likely has enough inventory on hand to cover short-term iPhone production issues. Peloton will boost the price of its all-access membership for U. Yahoo Finance reporter Alexis Keenan breaks down the legal ramifications over Elon Musk's latest criticisms of the SEC as they continue their investigation into his late filings.

Snowflake was maintained at a buy rating by an analyst on Thursday, but that analyst also lowered his price target. Additionally, Thursday marked a big stock market options expiration day, which are often volatile days that see traders trying to push stocks around. It's hard to pinpoint an exact reason; retail sales actually came in slightly lower than expected and jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected today though still at historically low levels , which are signs of a slight cooling in the economy.

Sundial shares were down 7. ET on Thursday. Sundial was originally scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings and annual report on March The current environment has been downright awful for mortgage real estate investment trusts REITs. Everyone is in the investing game to see strong returns - the bigger, the better. However, the prospect of pocketing huge gains usually comes with a caveat; the potential for higher returns is accompanied by added risk, that is just the natural order of things.

For those wishing to venture onto risker paths, penny stocks are one route to go down. That said, there is. If you want to skip the details about Mr. Markets closed. Dow 30 34, Nasdaq 13, Russell 2, Crude Oil Gold 1, Silver Vix CMC Crypto Still, no one knows the future with certainty, and I always advise keeping a long position on Bitcoin. First off, despite the recent drawdown in the Bitcoin price, many of the on-chain metrics remain bullish.

Data by YCharts. Above we see the evolution of Bitcoin's hash rate over the last three years. This metric has been trending up steadily, though it did dip significantly after China's ban on Bitcoin mining. However, Bitcoin's hash rate today is back at an all-time high, only 6 months later. This is a testament to the resiliency of the Bitcoin network, and the incredible industry that is behind it.

In a matter of months, miners from China relocated, and other miners expanded or entered the market to fill the void. The free market at its finest, showing us that even China is no match for it. Hash rate is not the only thing up, and we are still seeing strong activity in terms of Bitcoin transactions and active Bitcoin addresses. Active Addresses. On both metrics, we are seeing an upward trend in recent months. This is indeed a very simplistic analysis, but sometimes simplicity is good.

One just needs to look at the evidence that surrounds us. Bitcoin's price may be down, but interest and activity are at an all-time high. The NFT market continues to gather interest with trading volumes at all-time highs. This is also being accompanied by a rise in digital real estate price in the metaverse , and also the proliferation of play-to-earn games. Lastly, looking at more intricate on-chain metrics, we can also point out the potential for a bullish reversal in the near term.

One such metric is the Percent of Supply in Profit. This has acted as a form of support in the most recent capitulation events and could be an indicator of an impending bullish reversal. Alternatively, if this level sees a sustained break, it could indicate the beginnings of a longer bearish phase.

While there is certainly a lot to like and look forward to in Bitcoin, there are also valid bearish arguments, though I'd say they apply to the short-term more. First off, a correlation can be established between the growth of the M1 money supply and the Bitcoin price. BTC and M1. Above we can see M1 and Bitcoin in the last year and more zoomed out in the last 3 years. As we can see, the big rally coincided with the massive monetary expansion by the Fed.

As this money supply growth has stagnated, so has the Bitcoin price. The relationship also holds up on the smaller time frame quite well. It makes sense for Bitcoin to appreciate with monetary stimulus, as some see it as a "risk-on" asset. Does that mean Bitcoin will go down as the Fed tightens? It's possible. Is the Fed going to tighten? The consensus right now is that the Federal Reserve will be forced to hike rates to stop runaway inflation.

However, I'm skeptical about how long this tightening will last, basically because I don't think inflation will be as strong as many suspects. This is not a runaway inflation cycle like in the '70s. Inflation is being brought about by specific things like high energy prices and supply disruptions, and not so many monetary conditions. The evidence of this is in money velocity. Money Velocity. Money velocity is still near all-time lows, and haven't managed to pick up in While there is plenty of money out there in terms of M1, this money is not circulating, and without this circulation, inflation won't be long lasting.

Once this realization sinks in, it's back to QE and rate cuts, and the party goes on!

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