In a recent paper , I reviewed the proposed and final versions of 27 of the most important changes in bank capital and liquidity regulations from to in order to assess whether U. I found that in zero — yes, zero — of these cases did the regulators conduct a quantitative cost-benefit analysis to ensure that their regulations would not harm the banking system or the U. In five of the 27 cases, the regulatory proposals claim that the new rule would create net benefits for the economy.
But if you read the proposals carefully, you find that is not so. In each case, they initially claim that the benefits are large, but they later admit that the magnitudes of the benefits are actually unknown. Similar language is used in other proposals.
The regulators claim that the benefits of their rules exceed the costs, but in reality, they have no idea how big the benefits are. Uncertainty about the benefits of regulations might not matter if the regulations had no costs. But there are always costs. The costs of regulation might be borne by consumers, bank employees, corporate stakeholders, or even U.
New rules increase the complexity of the regulatory system, which — like a complex tax code — enables banks to avoid their regulatory burdens. Complex regulations are less effective at identifying bank risk. They can even push banks to take more risk than they normally would, such as regulations that encouraged banks to increase their holdings of mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, which turned out to be a major cause of the financial crisis.
That disproportionately affects smaller banks that cannot afford teams of lawyers and compliance officers, and it creates barriers to entry that limit competition. Following the Dodd-Frank Act of , for example, only one new bank was chartered from to , compared with an average of per year from to Restricting competition raises the costs of borrowing for businesses that want to expand and hire more workers.
In this way, regulations harm low-skilled workers in the form of lower wages and fewer jobs, which has been shown to substantially increase racial inequality and income inequality. While regulators are unclear about the benefits of regulations, they consistently underestimate the costs. None of the 27 rule proposals I reviewed considers the costs of greater inequality or how regulatory complexity might increase bank risk.
I found several instances in which the regulatory proposals misstated or misrepresented the research they cited. In a few cases, the research cited by the regulators actually showed that their proposed rules would lead to net costs rather than net benefits. Every single one! This is the level of shoddy research you should expect in proposals to regulate the crypto industry. Anyone predicting careful, well-researched crypto regulations needs to lower their expectations.
At least not if history is a useful guide. Most financial regulators do not conduct cost-benefit analysis of new regulations. Regulators often claim that the benefits of a rule exceed the costs, even while admitting that the benefits are unknown. They ignore the unintended consequences of increasing inequality and financial risk. In some cases, the research cited in favor of their proposed rules actually shows that those rules will on net be harmful to society.
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Diving in deeper on cryptocurrency. A survey showed bitcoin users tend to be overwhelmingly white and male, but of varying incomes. The people with the most bitcoins are more likely to be using it for illegal purposes, the survey suggested.
Each bitcoin has a complicated ID, known as a hexadecimal code, that is many times more difficult to steal than someone's credit-card information. And since there is a finite number to be accounted for, there is less of a chance bitcoin or fractions of a bitcoin will go missing. Bitcoin is unique in that there are a finite number of them: 21 million.
Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin's enigmatic founder, arrived at that number by assuming people would discover, or "mine," a set number of blocks of transactions daily. Every four years, the number of bitcoins released relative to the previous cycle gets cut in half, as does the reward to miners for discovering new blocks.
The reward right now is As a result, the number of bitcoins in circulation will approach 21 million, but never hit it. This means bitcoin never experiences inflation. Unlike US dollars, whose buying power the Fed can dilute by printing more greenbacks, there simply won't be more bitcoin available in the future. That has worried some skeptics, as it means a hack could be catastrophic in wiping out people's bitcoin wallets, with less hope for reimbursement.
Which could render bitcoin price irrelevant. Historically, the currency has been extremely volatile. As the total number creeps toward the 21 million mark, many suspect the profits miners once made creating new blocks will become so low they'll become negligible. But with more bitcoins in circulation, people also expect transaction fees to rise, possibly making up the difference. One of the biggest moments for Bitcoin came in August When the digital currency officially forked and split in two: bitcoin cash and bitcoin.
Miners were able to seek out bitcoin cash beginning Tuesday August 1st , and the cryptocurrency-focused news website CoinDesk said the first bitcoin cash was mined at about p. Supporters of the newly formed bitcoin cash believe the currency will "breath new life into" the nearly year-old bitcoin by addressing some of the issues facing bitcoin of late, such as slow transaction speeds. Bitcoin power brokers have been squabbling over the rules that should guide the cryptocurrency's blockchain network.
On one side are the so-called core developers. They are in favor of smaller bitcoin blocks, which they say are less vulnerable to hacking. On the other side are the miners, who want to increase the size of blocks to make the network faster and more scalable. Until just before the decision, the solution known as Segwit2x, which would double the size of bitcoin blocks to 2 megabytes, seemed to have universal support.
Then bitcoin cash came along. The solution is a fork of the bitcoin system. The new software has all the history of the old platform; however, bitcoin cash blocks have a capacity 8 megabytes. Bitcoin cash came out of left field, according to Charles Morris, a chief investment officer of NextBlock Global, an investment firm with digital assets. To be sure, only a minority of bitcoin miners and bitcoin exchanges have said they will support the new currency. Investors who have their bitcoin on exchanges or wallets that support the new currency will soon see their holdings double, with one unit in bitcoin cash added for every bitcoin.
But that doesn't mean the value of investors' holdings will double.